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Flight Guidance & Air TransportQuantitative risk assessment and their protective measures in aviation

Flugführung und Luftverkehr

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Lufo IV Project: SAMSYS - Safety Performance Index (SPI)


Quantitative risk assessment and their protective measures in airline operations

With the national implementation of the ICAO DOC 9859 by the German Federal Aviation Office (LBA) on 1 January 2009, the introduction of a Safety Management System (SMS) has become mandatory for all air transport companies located in Germany.  The national air transport companies are indented by law (§ 3 of 1. DV LuftBO) to quantify their operational safety to assess objectively threats, the risks derived from the threats and appropriate defensive measures. If an accident occurs in the future, the authorities will judge this as a lack of the corporate SMS.

Project organisation

Project notation
SAMSYS - Safety Performance Index (SPI)
Quantitative risk assessment and
their protective measures in airline operations
Project management agency
DLR Project Management Agency for Aeronautics Research
Project funding
Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) due to a resolution of the German Bundestag
Joint project leader
Lufthansa AG
Cpt. Manfred Müller / Heinz Liebminger
TUB project management
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Hüttig
Dr.-Ing. Oliver Lehmann
Research engineer
Dipl.-Ing. Ekkehart Schubert
Student research engineer
Daniel Schoolmann
Joint project partners
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Technische Universität München
BIBA - Uni Bremen
Cognidata GmbH

Tasks of TUB

Within the joint research project TUB carries out several scientific tasks in a sub-contract of Lufthansa AG. Existing SMS and regulations (ICAO, FAA, EASA) were analysed in the field of aviation. This included the transfer of knowledge from the LuFo III project SMS for airports to air operations (AP1 - requirement analysis).
In close cooperation with Lufthansa in another work package (WP2 - Process structure cockpit/flight operation) so-called TOP-Events (= most significant civil aviation occurrence categories) are determined. From the analysis of various international statistical sources (such as IATA, ICAO, EASA) and the internal company reporting system of Lufthansa, the probabilities of occurrences of the relevant threats are identified. The identified hazards are then split by means of a standardized taxonomy (ICAO ADREP / ECCAIRS) and placed in a ratio to the number of aircraft movements. Using this analytical view, the accident risk of appropriate individual risks (e.g. weather, technology and human error) can be estimated quantitatively. Subsequently, these datasets will be calibrated by using the flight operational data (FODA) and results from cockpit reporting and surveys.

A340-600 Simulator Trials at Lufthansa Flight Training (LFT) in Munich

For the quantitative evaluation of countermeasures the scientific investigation of the current training status of pilots was carried out parallel to the preparation of the SPIs in May / June 2011 together with TU Munich (Ergonomics) in a suitable study at two simulators of Lufthansa Flight Training (AP4 - verification in a flight simulator). The software-implementation of the SPIs is being processed by the partners at the TU Munich (Flight System Dynamics), BIBA and Cognidata parallel in other work packages (WP5-7).
The results and research approaches on the project will be carried to expert circles at conferences and symposia till completion in 2012 (AP8 - Dissemination of project results).



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